There were fresh warnings on Tuesday night that the UK's economic recovery was too reliant on hard-pressed consumers after official data showed exports falling.
The figures for October showed production at British factories continued to rise but Britain's trade deficit remained stubbornly high despite the government's push to rebalance the economy.
Overall, manufacturing output rose 0.4% from September, matching forecasts from City economists who had expected some slowdown from growth of 1.2% a month earlier.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said output also rose 0.4% in the wider industrial sector, which includes mining, oil and gas extraction and utilities such as water supply.
That was just ahead of forecasts for 0.3% growth but again down from September, when output rose 0.9%. However, separate data from the ONS showed Britain's trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed less than expected.
"October's figures on industrial production and trade offered some good news for the government's oft-proclaimed ambition for an economy more biased towards manufacturing. But, on the external side, the picture remains weak," said Martin Beck, UK economist at Capital Economics.
"For now, the UK's economic recovery looks like remaining a distinctly domestic affair." The industrial data follows a series of buoyant surveys on the UK economy suggesting businesses are generally becoming more confident about the recovery and are hiring more staff to keep up with growing orders.
The ONS said that in annual terms, industrial output grew at its fastest pace since January 2011, rising 3.2%.
The growth in the industrial sector helped nudge estimates for the overall economy higher in the latest assessment from respected thinktank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
It reckons GDP grew by 0.8% in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.7% in the three months ending in October.
"Our estimates suggest that the recent pattern of broad-based sectoral growth has continued," the group said. The ONS data suggested that within manufacturing much of the strength continued to come from the car industry.
David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said although the figures showed the economy continued growing into the final quarter of the year they highlighted the economic challenges that still remained.
"Though manufacturing is recovering, output is almost 9% below its pre-crisis level. We still have a large trade deficit and not enough progress is being made to rebalance the economy towards net exports," he said.
The trade data came days after the government's independent forecasters revised down the contribution they expect net trade to make to the economy.
In its latest outlook alongside chancellor George Osborne's autumn statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility said much of the UK recovery was still being driven by consumers.
Echoing economists' concerns about exports remaining subdued, the ONS said the UK's deficit on trade in goods was £9.7bn in October. That was £0.4bn lower than in September but bigger than the £9.35bn forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
Against the backdrop of ongoing uncertainty in the UK's key export market, exports to the European Union fell 3.8% and the deficit on trade in goods with the EU was at a record £6.5bn.
theguardian.com
The figures for October showed production at British factories continued to rise but Britain's trade deficit remained stubbornly high despite the government's push to rebalance the economy.
Overall, manufacturing output rose 0.4% from September, matching forecasts from City economists who had expected some slowdown from growth of 1.2% a month earlier.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said output also rose 0.4% in the wider industrial sector, which includes mining, oil and gas extraction and utilities such as water supply.
That was just ahead of forecasts for 0.3% growth but again down from September, when output rose 0.9%. However, separate data from the ONS showed Britain's trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed less than expected.
"October's figures on industrial production and trade offered some good news for the government's oft-proclaimed ambition for an economy more biased towards manufacturing. But, on the external side, the picture remains weak," said Martin Beck, UK economist at Capital Economics.
"For now, the UK's economic recovery looks like remaining a distinctly domestic affair." The industrial data follows a series of buoyant surveys on the UK economy suggesting businesses are generally becoming more confident about the recovery and are hiring more staff to keep up with growing orders.
The ONS said that in annual terms, industrial output grew at its fastest pace since January 2011, rising 3.2%.
The growth in the industrial sector helped nudge estimates for the overall economy higher in the latest assessment from respected thinktank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
It reckons GDP grew by 0.8% in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.7% in the three months ending in October.
"Our estimates suggest that the recent pattern of broad-based sectoral growth has continued," the group said. The ONS data suggested that within manufacturing much of the strength continued to come from the car industry.
David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said although the figures showed the economy continued growing into the final quarter of the year they highlighted the economic challenges that still remained.
"Though manufacturing is recovering, output is almost 9% below its pre-crisis level. We still have a large trade deficit and not enough progress is being made to rebalance the economy towards net exports," he said.
The trade data came days after the government's independent forecasters revised down the contribution they expect net trade to make to the economy.
In its latest outlook alongside chancellor George Osborne's autumn statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility said much of the UK recovery was still being driven by consumers.
Echoing economists' concerns about exports remaining subdued, the ONS said the UK's deficit on trade in goods was £9.7bn in October. That was £0.4bn lower than in September but bigger than the £9.35bn forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
Against the backdrop of ongoing uncertainty in the UK's key export market, exports to the European Union fell 3.8% and the deficit on trade in goods with the EU was at a record £6.5bn.
theguardian.com
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