Tuesday, June 19, 2012

European banking stocks fall despite Greek vote result

European banking stocks have fallen sharply despite the victory of pro-bailout parties in Greece's elections on Sunday.


While the New Democracy party's win raised hopes that the country would stick to austerity measures and stay in the euro, analysts said that much uncertainty remained. The fall in bank shares was seen across Europe, with Germany's Commerzbank down 4.3% and France's BNP losing 3.6%.

Wider share indexes were mixed. France's Cac was down 0.8% in afternoon trading, while Germany's Dax was 0.2% higher. Both had earlier risen 1%. The UK's FTSE was up 0.2% after falling in early trading, while in New York the Dow Jones was down 0.3% in opening exchanges.

Among other banking shares, Deutsche Bank was down 1%, while Credit Agricole had lost 3.8%.

In the UK, Royal Bank of Scotland had given up 5%. The yield on Spanish bonds - the eurozone country said to be most at risk of needing an international bailout in the future - also remained volatile.

The yield on Spain's 10-year bonds had initially fallen as low as 6.767%, before then rising to 7.08%. Italy's 10-year bond yield also rose, hitting 6.08%, after earlier falling to 5.847%.

Yield rises

The main share indexes of Spain and Italy also fell.Spain's Ibex was down 1.8%, while Italy's FTSE MIB lost 1.2%. In the currency markets, the euro was slightly lower against the dollar, at $1.2628 from $1.2637 late on Friday.

Asian shares had earlier on Monday posted strong gains, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index and South Korea's Kospi both closing up 1.8%, while Australia's ASX 200 added 1.9%.

Antonis Samaras, the leader of the New Democracy party, said on Sunday that "the Greek people voted today to stay on the European course and remain in the eurozone". "There will be no more adventures. Greece's place in Europe will not be put in doubt."

'Too euphoric'

Adrian Slack, head of equities at Bastion Capital, said the initial reaction to the Greek election result was "too euphoric". He added: "Fundamentally, the problems [in Greece and the eurozone] haven't changed."

Peter Schiff, of the brokerage Euro Pacific Capital, added: "How long is it going to take for people to worry about Spain again?"

Spain's borrowing costs have been hitting euro-era record levels, indicating that lenders were concerned about Madrid's ability to repay its debts.

Last week, the ratings agency Moody's cut Spain's credit rating to one notch above "junk". Yet other analsyts were more optimistic. Masayuki Doshida, a senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities, said the victory of Greece's New Democracy party had allayed eurozone fears for now.

"There'll be a definite sense of relief spreading around today," said Masayuki Doshida, she said. Fellow analyst, David Lennox of Fat Prophets, told the BBC that the worst of the Greek crisis could now be over. "We think that early punters are already taking the view that a floor has been put under the crisis for now," he said.

Contagion concerns

The elections in Greece were being watched closely, not just by eurozone leaders but also investors all across the globe.Greece, which is suffering from a sovereign debt crisis, has received two bailouts in the past two years. It was given an initial package worth 110bn euros (£89bn; $138bn) in 2010, followed by another one agreed last year worth 130bn euros.

However, the EU and IMF have attached tough austerity measures, including state spending cuts, as pre-conditions to those packages.

There have been various demonstrations against these cuts in Greece and the Syriza party had said that it would renegotiate the conditions if it came to power.

It had led to fears that if eurozone leaders and Athens did not agree on the existing terms, Greece may be forced to leave the eurozone. There were concerns that such a move may spread contagion to other eurozone countries and result in turmoil in the global economy.

However, the BBC's business editor, Robert Peston, said the new Greek government still faced an uphill challenge. He said that bankers had told him Greece needed "eurozone governments and the European Central Bank to write off a big slug of what they are owed".

bbc.co.uk

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